State Harm Index

Which states are doing the most harm

The governments of the 30 most populous countries, plus Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar and Gaza, scored from 1 to 100 on repression, violence, environmental damage, corruption and social harm. Yearly data sets the long run; the daily news moves it.

How the score works

A score is what a state does: its government, armed forces, police and official policy. It isn't a judgement of the people who live there. 1 means no harm; 100 would be the most harm a state can do.

Gaza isn't a state. Its row scores Hamas, which has governed it since 2007; what Israel does in Gaza counts toward Israel's score.

Five dimensions, one credit

Three layers

  • Analyst anchor. On each dimension was set by judgement against the evidence. That is where the scores sat on that day.
  • Yearly indicators move the scores before and after it: civil liberties, democracy and rule of law (V-Dem, Freedom House), corruption (Transparency International), emissions, land clearing and fossil fuel production (Global Carbon Project, Energy Institute), deaths in organised violence a state took part in (UCDP), inequality, gender gaps and homicide (World Bank, UNDP, UNODC), aid and refugees hosted (OECD, UNHCR). These carry the 1-year and 10-year columns.
  • The news. Every day the GDELT event stream is searched for actions by each state's own organs, the strongest stories are fetched (headline and opening), and a language model scores what changed against each state's known conduct. Repeats of a story already counted are dropped. A country is compared with its own normal flow of news, so heavy coverage alone doesn't raise a score. Each scored story is listed under its country with its sources.

Reading the changes

The 1-day, 14-day and 3-month columns move mostly on news; the 1-year and 10-year columns mostly on yearly data. A rise is shown warm with an up arrow; a fall is teal with a down arrow.

What it can't see

  • News coverage is uneven. Countries the English-language press covers less (DR Congo, Tanzania, Colombia) produce fewer scored stories, so their scores move less than events there would justify.
  • Indicators lag a year or two, and some (Gini, homicide) are sparse. The latest value is carried forward.
  • The anchor is one analyst's judgement. Each country's panel shows what the indicators alone would say, so you can see where judgement and data disagree.
  • Machine-read news makes mistakes. Every scored story links to its sources and gives its reasoning.

Not included

Harm before about 2000 (colonialism and the World Wars), and harm by companies or armed groups a state doesn't direct or protect.